Three weeks isn’t a long time in an NFL season. A player who starts strong over Weeks 1-3 isn’t guaranteed to keep it up for the rest of the year. On the flip side, those who start slow still have plenty of time to get going and having a strong campaign.
That’s why fantasy football managers must try to predict which breakout players are actually breaking out. Some early standouts who have put up big numbers have the potential to fall off, while others are true rising stars.
With that in mind, here’s some start/sit advice for fringe flex players for Week 4.
After a breakout 2022 rookie season, Dameon Pierce isn’t having the same type of success early in 2023. The Houston Texans running back is averaging only 2.5 yards per rushing attempt (100 yards on 40 carries) and hasn’t run for more than 38 yards in a game.
However, the 23-year-old scored his first touchdown of the season in Houston’s Week 3 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. And he is still getting a high volume of work, as he’s still the clear top option out of the Texans’ backfield.
Stick with the Florida product for now, especially with Houston set for a Week 4 matchup vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers, which are allowing 151.7 rushing yards per game, tied for the second most in the NFL.
It’s a prime opportunity for Pierce to put together his best performance of the season thus far.
It may be tough to sit a running back coming off a 233-yard, four-touchdown performance in Week 3, but it’s important to remember the factors that led to De’Von Achane’s huge showing in the Miami Dolphins’ 70-20 win over the Denver Broncos this past Sunday.
The 21-year-old rookie may have gotten 22 touches because the game got out of hand early. There was no reason to work starting RB Raheem Mostert too hard in a lopsided contest. Achane had only one carry and one reception in the Week 2 loss to the New England Patriots.
The Dolphins have a tough Week 4 matchup against the Buffalo Bills, so the game is unlikely to go the same way. That means it’s less likely both Mostert and Achane will be productive, so leave the latter on the bench for now.
Over his first three games for the Carolina Panthers, Adam Thielen’s numbers have gone up. That led to his biggest performance yet in Week 3, when he recorded 11 catches for 145 yards with a touchdown, his second straight game getting into the end zone.
The 33-year-old’s latest strong showing came with Andy Dalton under center for the Panthers, but rookie quarterback Bryce Young could return from an ankle injury in Week 4.
Either way, the two-time Pro Bowler is a start-worthy player in a revenge matchup vs. the Minnesota Vikings, the team he played for during his first nine NFL seasons.
Minnesota is allowing 261.7 passing yards per game, tied for the seventh most in the league. So, Thielen has a great opportunity to continue his recent hot stretch against his old club.
Although wide receiver Marquise Brown hasn’t been putting up large yardage totals early in the season, he’s scored a touchdown in each of the past two weeks.
The 26-year-old is also coming off the best of his first three games, as he had five catches for 61 yards in the Arizona Cardinals’ upset victory over the Dallas Cowboys.
It’ll be much tougher for Brown to get into the end zone in Week 4, when the Cardinals are going on the road to face the San Francisco 49ers. Arizona’s offense will likely struggle to move the ball against a stingy Niners defense.
That’s why it may be best to put him on the bench for a week, assuming that you’re a fantasy manager who has better options at the WR and flex spots. His trend of low yardage totals may continue for at least one more game.
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